Federal Law No. 44-FZ "On the Contract System in the Field of Procurement of Goods, Works, and Services for State and Municipal Needs" regulates the process of concluding and executing government contracts in Russia. In the context of increasing complexity and volume of purchases, the counterparty analysis module is becoming an important tool, which allows you to assess the reliability and risks associated with the execution of contracts. The analysis of contractors was carried out taking into account the executed or unfinished contracts. The models of logistic regression, decision forests, clustering and neural networks are used. The models showed a good prediction probability, excluding neural networks for which the training sample was too small.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, cybersecurity, intelligent models, financial sector, government contracts, information infrastructure