The article studies possibilities for analyzing geopolitical processes within the framework of situational analysis methodology using cognitive modeling. Situational analysis description is given, and scenario for developing events is presented where two stages are distinguished: a preparatory stage (a pre-scenario stage) which is essential for performing descriptive and explanatory functions of predictive research, and a scenario stage intended for substantive and formal research as well as for description of predicted processes, construction of system models and preparation of all significant information for scenario synthesis. Furthermore, a method for applying situational analysis is proposed to be used within the framework of the cognitive modeling toolkit of a “future scenario” option and its analysis with account of new “main” factors, relationships, feedbacks and dynamics of their alterations. When forming a scenario for a specific geopolitical situation within the framework of cognitive modeling, this method can be presented by causal (functional) and logical-semantic relation between the elements/agents of actions and counteractions. By interpreting the logical-semantic as structural, and the causal as dynamic, we obtain a structural-dynamic systemic description of geopolitical confrontation using the language of cognitive graphs, i.e. presenting a graphical expression of causal relationships between the concepts (factors) that characterize a particular geopolitical process. Thus, within the framework of a scenario stage the following procedures are conducted: analyzing the initial geopolitical situation, namely: determining key factors that build up the scheme of internal connections and external relationships, and their structuring; defining factors that make an impact; determining impact directions and force (positive and negative effect); choosing basic stereotypes or generalized models of interactions that correspond to the initial situation; constructing cognitive models of the current state of a situation; studying trends for the situation’s development and its dynamics analysis; transferring a scenario onto a practical basis.

Keywords: geopolitical processes, situational analysis, cognitive modeling, methodology for constructing predictive scenarios

Abstract. It is revealed that specific forms of a simulation game combined with some peculiarities of training sessions in organizational systems could result in developing adaptable simulation models of a business situation. It is recommended to use a cognitive model in problem analysis of organizational systems, which allows switching from cognitive to simulation models naturally still being in visual topological descriptions. The AnyLogic software platform was chosen for developing a model which provides ample opportunities for creating an innovative educational environment with the elements of game simulations and AI. Cognitive analysis of a game learning process has revealed that the latter should have one cycle of a business game with two interactive nodes to introduce a host and a player into the game. It is noted that business games focused on developing management styles in a conflict are mostly in demand. Therefore, a simulation model has been developed to train executives to counteract an organizational conflict within the variability of authoritarian, democratic and liberal management styles. The model uses a paradigm of systems dynamics and is implemented in the AnyLogic software platform notation. To set the rules, the game host in the initial state or when starting the next game cycle sets the dynamics characteristics of a process while managing the organizational structure, as well as changes characteristics values of a pre-conflict situation. In response to conflict development the player performs management using auxiliary services available to him. In fact, the model is not limited by a list of the game’s tasks or possible options for a player’s decision.

Keywords: management diversification, production diversification, financial and economic diversification goals, production and technical goals to ensure production flexibility

The article shows the relevance of solving the problem of conceptual analysis of traditional and digital educational structures integrated in the process of transformation, identification and evaluation of their effective interaction. It is proposed to use the methodology of the cognitive analysis that has already passed the stages of approbation in the subject environment of education. It is noted that the educational process includes continuously generated and continuously modified cycles of cognition of reality. Within the framework of generalized descriptions presented by models of cognition, a transition is naturally made from individualized cycles of cognition to a collective study of reality, in which models already control collective cognition, forming a cycle of cognition based on collective communication. An initial cognitive model has been developed which illustrates the situation that has developed in the modern educational system under the powerful influence of the "technocratic" point of view on digitalization. A cognitive model of collective cognition and communication in the digital environment is proposed, which systematically integrates three important parts from the point of view of transformational processes in education, namely, the traditional structure of cognition of reality, the newest structure of digital communication built in the paradigm of the collective subject of cognition, and, finally, the structure of strategic management based on the socio-cultural development of society and the country.

Keywords: Cognitive model, education, digital transformation, cognition, communication

It is shown that in the analysis of self-determination it is expedient to use the tools of cognitive modeling. This allows us to identify all the cause-and-effect relationships that provide logical and semantic focus on the desired (target) result of a particular system. The problem of analysis is a special case of the study of the fundamental philosophical category of development, as the relationship and interaction of "things, properties and relations". Formally, the analysis can be reduced to the procedure of semantic and causal interpretation of the original cognitive model. The model allows to study the internal structural organizations that affect the implementation of self-determination of the system. Analysis of self-determination in turn opens the way to effective cognitive modeling, construction of dynamic models, application of game and scenario analysis methods.

Keywords: cognitive analysis, cognitive model, structure, system, self-determination, management, interpretation